Statistics

Rules

Dice don't remember!

Statistical relevance: You need a certain number of occurrences before there is the possibility of a relation between events.

Even if there is a statistical relevance, it is not a proof. It just allows you to now try to find the reasons for the relation.

Misc

Monty Hall problem

The "Monty Hall problem" shows how pseudo science can influence people. Currently - 2023-08-29 - there is an entry in the Wikipedia which uses over 50000 (yes, that are 50 thousand) letters to tell us that the chance of a win between two equal choices is 1/3 instead of 1/2.

You find a lot of articles who tell you the same. You find books and web novels where the protagonist is the only one smart enough to understand that the solution is 1/3.

The problem is, this is wrong.

Remember the first rule? "Dice don't remember!" Gates don't remember too.

So, it is of NO relevance how many doors there were before or what the moderator thinks or says.

You have a situation with two equal chances which makes the chance to for a win 50% and the chance for a loss 50%.

Why? Because gates don't remember!

All that smart ass talk which goes around and around and seems so incredible smart, it is just wrong and common sense gives the right answer.